Mapping the landscape of software tools for modeling climate-sensitive infectious diseases

We are seeing more and more how weather patterns and longer-term climate trends can influence the rate and spread of infectious diseases. For this reason, models that incorporate environmental predictions are in high demand.

However, some major obstacles complicate the use of these models by policy makers. For example, a health policy maker may not have the technical expertise to use a model or understand its results. Moreover, a model may produce information that does not correspond to the needs of the policy maker.

This report is Wellcome’s first step in identifying and addressing technology gaps that compromise global preparedness for climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Findings include:

• in papers published over the past 10 years, only 37 fully developed and named tools were found. This suggests either that the modeling tools ecosystem is underinvested and/or that there is little incentive to maintain high-quality code.
• 81.1% of the tools identified are intended for vector-borne disease control systems. There is a shortage of tools for respiratory, food and waterborne diseases.
• North American and European institutions created the majority of the tools, highlighting the need for greater global representation.
• there are several major barriers to implementing the tool, including a lack of effective communication between modellers and decision makers, that need to be addressed.

For an interactive summary of these and other key findings, as well as a curated list of the 37 tools identified, visit the Tools for Climate-sensitive Diseases website.